Today's the Day we make or break

Today is Primary Day, and if you haven't cast your ballot to Pick Rick, get out before eight o' clock and get it done.

Rick will be in Steubenville, Ohio tonight celebrating victory, but if we all get out and do our duty, we will all have something to celebrate this evening.

Today I wrote a somewhat personal "Election Reflection" in my column for The Examiner, but perhaps it will help you understand why today is so important, it is make-or-break. If you know someone who wants to support Rick and they need a ride to the polls, get them there. Call your family, tell your friends, do all that you can.

Just maybe you can tell your grandchildren or other family members how you helped make political history in the Republican Party.

Later tonight, if you are so inclined, join me, Hatton Humphrey, Ken Marrero, and maybe even Senator Stacey Campfield for a special Super Tuesday podcast at 9:30pm Eastern and 8:30pm Central time.

Doing the right thing

On Saturday, Senator Stacey Campfield, who had been the co-director for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich's campaign in Tennessee, announced that he was withdrawing as Newt's statewide co-chair, and as a Gingrich delegate, and throwing his support behind Rick Santorum. Stacey also announced that he wasn't alone.

Therefore, as of now, I am stepping down as the statewide co chairman for Newt Gingrich and throwing all of my support behind Rick Santorum. Going with me are the top 3 second congressional district delegates for Newt (Dr. Leonard Brown, Dr. Aaron Margulise and Scott Smith).

I know that this was a tough decision for Stacey, and I am not just saying that because it is the polite and politick thing to say, I am saying it because I really do know. I've known Stacey personally for years, and I consider him to be one of my best friends, and he is certainly the best friend I have in the politics of this State-he has stood with me and stood up for me and behind me when no one else would. He is a real champion of the conservative movement if there ever was one in Tennessee.

Stacey called me Thursday to let me know that he was considering this switch. He said that Rick had called him personally, and they dealt with scenarios and with political realities. Stacey said he really enjoyed his talk with Rick, and said he felt that Rick had a real strategy in place to win. When I talked to Stacey, though, he still hadn't made his decision. He's a loyalist to the bone whose word is known to be his bond. He didn't want to seem like he was betraying a commitment that he had made. I reminded him of words he had once said to me: "Politics is a cruel and expensive mistress, and when the votes aren't there, you just have to move on."  He repeated part of that in his blog post announcing his decision. It is a reality that any of us who have ever been involved in political campaigns have had to deal with at some point, and it is always a hard one, especially when it is confronting a candidate that you believe deeply in.

I shared with Stacey why I feel the way I do about Rick, of course, but I didn't try to persuade him, only offered my help in any way I could to help make it a smooth transition if he did decide to switch. "I can only offer you one word of advice," I told him, "do the right thing."

He, Dr. Brown, Dr. Marguilise, and Mr. Smith made their choice for the good of the Republican Party and the country.

Tennessee Conservative Legislators Endorse Rick Santorum

Santorum garners endorsements from Conservative legislative leaders.

The mud is slinging

The negative ads from the Frontrunner's SuperPAC were all over the radio this morning, deceptively telling us that no "candidate" authorized them, with their soundbytes quoting Rick conveniently out of context. It is to be expected, because if the polls are to be believed at all, the Frontrunner is in some trouble, and he knows it.

Michigan was a Victory for Santorum

Although Santorum officially lost this past Tuesday in Michigan, in many ways it was actually a win. It is now being reported by the Associated Press that Rick and Mittens both won 15 delegates in the state of Michigan. Santorum was only three percentage points behind Romney in the popular election, and received the same number of delegates.

So how is this a win?

As Rick pointed out at a recent rally I attended in Powell, Tennessee:

This is a big win for us. We went into his backyard. He spent a fortune, money he had no intention of spending, and we came out there with the same number of delegates he does. We are in great shape going into this election. We are excited about what's going to happen on Super Tuesday.

Romney barely squeaked by with a popular victory in his birth state. Rick nearly beat him on a shoestring budget. Remember, no one ever expected Rick to get this far. A few months ago he was running far behind candidates that have now dropped out of the race. Rick Santorum is the ultimate underdog.

This Tuesday, March 6th, is Super Tuesday. Ultimately, it is delagates that count. This Tuesday over 400 delegates between ten states (including our own great state of Tennessee) are up for grabs. Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Vermont are also voting for the GOP nominee.

Rick Santorum will do very well in Tennessee if the polls are accurate. However, often the polls are not accurate, and we should not presume he will win. If you're like me you voted early. If you haven't, get off your butt on Tuesday and go cast your vote! Encourage your friends and family to go vote too.

If they are undecided, remind them that under Obama the real unemployment rate is around 15%. Remind them that under Obama gas prices are higher than ever. Remind them that our defense budget is the first thing the President always cuts. Remind them how he and his Democrat majority in Congress shoved Obamacare down our throats, and that he wants to pass more mammoth government programs. Remind them that he's doing everything he can to make sure the United States is not energy independent.

Then remind them that Rick Santorum is the polar opposite of Barack Obama. Rick is a strong social conservative and a devoted family man. At one point a few months ago, he even took a break from campaigning to be with his sick daughter. He has fought, and continues to fight, for freedom of religion and the rights of the unborn. He also has a great economic plan to strengthen our nation financially. Among other things, Rick plans to repeal Obamacare and replace it with market based healthcare innovation that works. He wants to pass a balanced budget amendment to the Constitutiom that would cap government spending at 18% of GDP. Rick wants to reform the tax code and the EPA, and eliminate agriculture and energy subsidies. I encourage you to read his plan for yourself.

Here's another thought. If underdog Rick Santorum can almost beat wealthy Mitt Romney in his own birth state on a shoestring budget, just imagine how much better he might do with a little more financial support. If you can spare, donate to his campaign today.

The heat and the fight is on (Yes your vote counts)

The media spin of supposed inevitability of the Frontrunner has already begun after the Frontrunner just barely survived in Michigan last night. A serious look at the map does not show us inevitability, but shows precisely what I predicted here yesterday, a delegate split out of Michigan. Indeed, had it not been for the vote in Oakland County, where the Frontrunner grew up, the Frontrunner would likely not have "won" at all.

Now comes Tennessee's turn, and while polls have consistently shown a lead for Rick Santorum, it is important to remember that the money and power of this State are behind the Frontrunner, and if it appears that the Frontrunner will do badly here, he may rely on Ron Paul to do his dirtywork of undercutting Rick's votes, or perhaps even try and throw the State to Newt Gingrich, not to help Newt, just to hurt Rick.

The political holy war over the next week will be in the State of Ohio. No Republican has ever won the Presidency without carrying Ohio, so it is very important for any potential Republican nominee to show that they are capable of winning there. Failure to do so brings the viability of a candidate into very serious question, so Ohio is a must-win for both Rick Santorum and the Frontrunner. If you think the ads and the blanket campaigning has been a sight to behold here in Tennessee, it will be a hundred times more intense in Ohio over the next seven days.

Former Ohio Lt. Governor, U.S. Senator, and current Attorney General Mike DeWine withdrew his support as a Romney delegate so that he could join Rick's team. (Photo: beta.wosu.org/Mandie Trimble)


Rick has said that he is relying on Washington State (which votes Saturday), Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Ohio to propel him on in the race for the Republican nomination. That makes Tennessee not only important, but a must-win for Rick (not for the Frontrunner), and the opposition knows it. We're in the primary homestretch, and we can win this thing! We can't afford to let up now. Every phone call, every door knocked on, every friend reached out to, every person driven to the polls, every sign, every minute, and every vote matters. After this primary, none of us will ever be able to say "my vote doesn't count."

The Frontrunner uses a tactic from four years ago

The last day of early voting in Tennessee's presidential primary (note: if you have a chance to get out and pick Rick before your local early voting polling station closes tonight, please do so) also happens to be the day of one of the most critical primaries of the season so far-Michigan. This State was supposed to be a "gimmie" for the Frontrunner. He was born and raised there, his father was Governor there, and he is supposed to know the local lingo. This Michigan supporter of the Frontrunner admits, however, that the Frontrunner has been away from Michigan too long for his so-called roots to make much of a difference, even admitting that the younger generation could care less about the Frontrunner's family name.




 The Frontrunner seems to know he has a problem, because he has resorted to a tactic which he first used in 2008-whining like a spoiled rich kid who doesn't get his way. In 2008, Romney whined like a baby whose candy had been taken away after the West Virginia State Republican Convention voted for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee instead of Romney. Instead of congratulating Huckabee like a man, Romney blamed John McCain because the few McCain delegates in West Virginia opted to vote for Huckabee rather than hold up their State's nominating process indefinitely.I discussed the Frontrunner's whiny child persona in this Super Tuesday 2008 podcast with Adam Graham, Ken Marrero, Warner Todd Huston, and John McJunkin. My description begins at 21:05 and ends at 23:26.

One possible scenario being thrown around that could happen in Michigan tonight is a delegate split. Michigan's delegates are awarded by congressional district and there are 14 congressional districts in Michigan. There is some talk that if Rick can take at least seven of those districts, he will walk out of Michigan with half of that State's delegates regardless of the final results.

You can join Rick Santorum's Idaho State coordinator, Adam Graham, along with me (David Oatney, and maybe a few other guests) as we break down the results from Michigan and Arizona in a live podcast beginning at 9:30pm Eastern and 8:30pm Central time tonight. We'll talk about what these results mean for Rick's campaign and where the race for the Republican nomination goes from here.

Willard Mitt can't run from his past

Normally, I wouldn't share my daily Examiner column in this space as a primary source, because this blog exists to help elect Rick Santorum, not to promote my column. However, much has been said within conservative circles in recent days about why the Frontrunner has failed to "close the door" with conservatives among the base of Republican Party. Today, I posited that a big part of the reason is that religious conservatives matter much more than the so called "party establishment" seems to think.

The Frontrunner should not be discounted as a candidate because of his Mormon faith, and to do so would be a profoundly un-American position. However, it is quite reasonable to hold any candidate accountable for their positions based on the tenets of the faith that they profess, and the Frontrunner has shifted positions on social issues repeatedly depending on who his political audience happened to be.


 


This 2008 McCain ad successfully highlighted the problems with the Frontrunner's flip-flops.

It is precisely because so many of us cannot pinpoint where the Frontrunner really stands on almost anything that he is not the wonderboy that so many people at the top of the party heap have spent so much time leading us to believe. Does this look like enthusiasm for a candidate to you?

  This was an address to the Detroit Economic Club and rally for the Frontrunner at Ford Field in Detroit. The Frontrunner's people apparently really believed they could bring in enough people to make the place look full, or at least make it appear as though the voters gave a flying flip. Ego, anyone?

If you want to win the votes of conservative people, it might help if you behave and act as if you are one of them.

Can you pick Rick in a straw poll?

If you want to know a way that you can show Rick Santorum some Tennessee support that might help turnout among the Republican base on March 6th, you can show up and participate in one of two straw polls coming up in the next few days (if you have the funds and can spare them, by all means vote in both).

The first straw poll will be taken at the Hamblen County Republican Party Lincoln/Reagan Day Dinner, which will be held tomorrow night, February 24th, 2012 at 6:30pm at First Presbyterian Church, located at 600 West Main Street in Morristown. Tickets are $25/each, and can be obtained by calling Hamblen County GOP Chairman Paul Chapman at 423-312-2027. You can also get tickets at the door provided that they aren't sold out.

The second straw poll opportunity will be the Tennessee Conservative Union's Reagan Day Dinner and Southern Conservative Caucus. This important event will be on Saturday, March 3rd, 2012 at the ballroom of the Crowne Plaza Hotel in downtown Knoxville. It's quite a bit more pricey than the Morristown straw poll at $100 a ticket, but the food is always fabulous at this annual who's who of East Tennessee conservatism (fried chicken, collards, hominy, mashed potatoes, macaroni and cheese, fat and calories et. al.), and a big part of that hundred bucks a head is going to pay for Herman Cain's speaking fee. If you can spare the time, travel, and funds for either or both of these straw polls, please show up and pick Rick!