Today's the Day we make or break

Today is Primary Day, and if you haven't cast your ballot to Pick Rick, get out before eight o' clock and get it done.

Rick will be in Steubenville, Ohio tonight celebrating victory, but if we all get out and do our duty, we will all have something to celebrate this evening.

Today I wrote a somewhat personal "Election Reflection" in my column for The Examiner, but perhaps it will help you understand why today is so important, it is make-or-break. If you know someone who wants to support Rick and they need a ride to the polls, get them there. Call your family, tell your friends, do all that you can.

Just maybe you can tell your grandchildren or other family members how you helped make political history in the Republican Party.

Later tonight, if you are so inclined, join me, Hatton Humphrey, Ken Marrero, and maybe even Senator Stacey Campfield for a special Super Tuesday podcast at 9:30pm Eastern and 8:30pm Central time.

Doing the right thing

On Saturday, Senator Stacey Campfield, who had been the co-director for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich's campaign in Tennessee, announced that he was withdrawing as Newt's statewide co-chair, and as a Gingrich delegate, and throwing his support behind Rick Santorum. Stacey also announced that he wasn't alone.

Therefore, as of now, I am stepping down as the statewide co chairman for Newt Gingrich and throwing all of my support behind Rick Santorum. Going with me are the top 3 second congressional district delegates for Newt (Dr. Leonard Brown, Dr. Aaron Margulise and Scott Smith).

I know that this was a tough decision for Stacey, and I am not just saying that because it is the polite and politick thing to say, I am saying it because I really do know. I've known Stacey personally for years, and I consider him to be one of my best friends, and he is certainly the best friend I have in the politics of this State-he has stood with me and stood up for me and behind me when no one else would. He is a real champion of the conservative movement if there ever was one in Tennessee.

Stacey called me Thursday to let me know that he was considering this switch. He said that Rick had called him personally, and they dealt with scenarios and with political realities. Stacey said he really enjoyed his talk with Rick, and said he felt that Rick had a real strategy in place to win. When I talked to Stacey, though, he still hadn't made his decision. He's a loyalist to the bone whose word is known to be his bond. He didn't want to seem like he was betraying a commitment that he had made. I reminded him of words he had once said to me: "Politics is a cruel and expensive mistress, and when the votes aren't there, you just have to move on."  He repeated part of that in his blog post announcing his decision. It is a reality that any of us who have ever been involved in political campaigns have had to deal with at some point, and it is always a hard one, especially when it is confronting a candidate that you believe deeply in.

I shared with Stacey why I feel the way I do about Rick, of course, but I didn't try to persuade him, only offered my help in any way I could to help make it a smooth transition if he did decide to switch. "I can only offer you one word of advice," I told him, "do the right thing."

He, Dr. Brown, Dr. Marguilise, and Mr. Smith made their choice for the good of the Republican Party and the country.

The mud is slinging

The negative ads from the Frontrunner's SuperPAC were all over the radio this morning, deceptively telling us that no "candidate" authorized them, with their soundbytes quoting Rick conveniently out of context. It is to be expected, because if the polls are to be believed at all, the Frontrunner is in some trouble, and he knows it.

The heat and the fight is on (Yes your vote counts)

The media spin of supposed inevitability of the Frontrunner has already begun after the Frontrunner just barely survived in Michigan last night. A serious look at the map does not show us inevitability, but shows precisely what I predicted here yesterday, a delegate split out of Michigan. Indeed, had it not been for the vote in Oakland County, where the Frontrunner grew up, the Frontrunner would likely not have "won" at all.

Now comes Tennessee's turn, and while polls have consistently shown a lead for Rick Santorum, it is important to remember that the money and power of this State are behind the Frontrunner, and if it appears that the Frontrunner will do badly here, he may rely on Ron Paul to do his dirtywork of undercutting Rick's votes, or perhaps even try and throw the State to Newt Gingrich, not to help Newt, just to hurt Rick.

The political holy war over the next week will be in the State of Ohio. No Republican has ever won the Presidency without carrying Ohio, so it is very important for any potential Republican nominee to show that they are capable of winning there. Failure to do so brings the viability of a candidate into very serious question, so Ohio is a must-win for both Rick Santorum and the Frontrunner. If you think the ads and the blanket campaigning has been a sight to behold here in Tennessee, it will be a hundred times more intense in Ohio over the next seven days.

Former Ohio Lt. Governor, U.S. Senator, and current Attorney General Mike DeWine withdrew his support as a Romney delegate so that he could join Rick's team. (Photo: beta.wosu.org/Mandie Trimble)


Rick has said that he is relying on Washington State (which votes Saturday), Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Ohio to propel him on in the race for the Republican nomination. That makes Tennessee not only important, but a must-win for Rick (not for the Frontrunner), and the opposition knows it. We're in the primary homestretch, and we can win this thing! We can't afford to let up now. Every phone call, every door knocked on, every friend reached out to, every person driven to the polls, every sign, every minute, and every vote matters. After this primary, none of us will ever be able to say "my vote doesn't count."

The Frontrunner uses a tactic from four years ago

The last day of early voting in Tennessee's presidential primary (note: if you have a chance to get out and pick Rick before your local early voting polling station closes tonight, please do so) also happens to be the day of one of the most critical primaries of the season so far-Michigan. This State was supposed to be a "gimmie" for the Frontrunner. He was born and raised there, his father was Governor there, and he is supposed to know the local lingo. This Michigan supporter of the Frontrunner admits, however, that the Frontrunner has been away from Michigan too long for his so-called roots to make much of a difference, even admitting that the younger generation could care less about the Frontrunner's family name.




 The Frontrunner seems to know he has a problem, because he has resorted to a tactic which he first used in 2008-whining like a spoiled rich kid who doesn't get his way. In 2008, Romney whined like a baby whose candy had been taken away after the West Virginia State Republican Convention voted for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee instead of Romney. Instead of congratulating Huckabee like a man, Romney blamed John McCain because the few McCain delegates in West Virginia opted to vote for Huckabee rather than hold up their State's nominating process indefinitely.I discussed the Frontrunner's whiny child persona in this Super Tuesday 2008 podcast with Adam Graham, Ken Marrero, Warner Todd Huston, and John McJunkin. My description begins at 21:05 and ends at 23:26.

One possible scenario being thrown around that could happen in Michigan tonight is a delegate split. Michigan's delegates are awarded by congressional district and there are 14 congressional districts in Michigan. There is some talk that if Rick can take at least seven of those districts, he will walk out of Michigan with half of that State's delegates regardless of the final results.

You can join Rick Santorum's Idaho State coordinator, Adam Graham, along with me (David Oatney, and maybe a few other guests) as we break down the results from Michigan and Arizona in a live podcast beginning at 9:30pm Eastern and 8:30pm Central time tonight. We'll talk about what these results mean for Rick's campaign and where the race for the Republican nomination goes from here.

Willard Mitt can't run from his past

Normally, I wouldn't share my daily Examiner column in this space as a primary source, because this blog exists to help elect Rick Santorum, not to promote my column. However, much has been said within conservative circles in recent days about why the Frontrunner has failed to "close the door" with conservatives among the base of Republican Party. Today, I posited that a big part of the reason is that religious conservatives matter much more than the so called "party establishment" seems to think.

The Frontrunner should not be discounted as a candidate because of his Mormon faith, and to do so would be a profoundly un-American position. However, it is quite reasonable to hold any candidate accountable for their positions based on the tenets of the faith that they profess, and the Frontrunner has shifted positions on social issues repeatedly depending on who his political audience happened to be.


 


This 2008 McCain ad successfully highlighted the problems with the Frontrunner's flip-flops.

It is precisely because so many of us cannot pinpoint where the Frontrunner really stands on almost anything that he is not the wonderboy that so many people at the top of the party heap have spent so much time leading us to believe. Does this look like enthusiasm for a candidate to you?

  This was an address to the Detroit Economic Club and rally for the Frontrunner at Ford Field in Detroit. The Frontrunner's people apparently really believed they could bring in enough people to make the place look full, or at least make it appear as though the voters gave a flying flip. Ego, anyone?

If you want to win the votes of conservative people, it might help if you behave and act as if you are one of them.

Get out early to pick Rick

Just in case you live in Tennessee and you might have forgotten, you don't have to wait until March 6th to cast your vote, you can vote early until February 28th-that's this Tuesday. All 95 counties allow registered voters in those counties to cast their ballots early at your county election commission office. In addition, many counties have opened other satellite locations where voters can come and participate in the early voting process. In counties such as Knox, Hamilton, Johnson, Sullivan, Davidson, and Shelby, there are several early voting locations to choose from, and many of our suburban and rural counties have also adopted an early voting program that encompasses more than one early voting site.

Tennessee Secretary of State Tre Hargett and Election Administrator Mark Goins say they are encouraging early voting this year, and they invite Tennesseans to contact their county election offices to find out where to cast their votes early. You won't want to forget that photo ID as part of Tennessee's new voter identification law, and remember that if you don't drive, even if your ID card is expired so long as it is a Tennessee-issued identification with your picture, you are good to cast your vote, whether early or on Primary Day itself.

Yesterday we talked about a couple of important and fun straw polls that Rick's supporters could participate in. Straw polls are extremely enjoyable and sometimes they can even be politically important, but no poll is more important than the one that really counts, and thanks to the sacrifice of so many of our veterans and men and women still in uniform, that poll is absolutely free-all you need to do is show up-and if you can't do that, you can even vote absentee.

If you are familiar with Tennessee politics, you know that since early voting has been introduced here, it has been a real factor in our electoral process. I've seen elections decided on the early votes alone, and we've seen some of our news media able to successfully call elections based on the return of the early vote, which in most counties in Tennessee are always the first votes to be counted. If you vote early in this Presidential Primary, your votes could help show us quickly who the delegates go to on Primary Night.

I've already picked Rick! You can too, if you haven't already-find out where to go tomorrow (Saturday), Monday, or Tuesday by contacting your county election commission. If you can't vote early, remember to pick Rick Santorum at your local precinct on March 6th.

Ron selling out so that Rand can reap the profits?

If you watched the debate the other night you noticed that the Frontrunner wasn't the only candidate throwing unsubstantiated half-truths and epithets such as "fake" at Rick Santorum. Texas Congressman Ron Paul, the so-called libertarian in the race, was leading the attack in a supporting role, attempting, it would seem, to assist the Frontrunner in his campaign against Rick. This was a strange spectacle to observe from a man who hasn't even pretended to like the Frontrunner-until now.

It seems like a strange alliance-the libertarian and the pseudo-Democrat-two people who, within the Republican coalition, could not be further apart ideologically. Why on earth would Ron Paul want to help the Frontrunner, unless he thought he could get something out of it?

...Or at least that a member of his family might.

Matt Lewis of The Daily Caller says Paul hasn't really gone after the Frontrunner, while he routinely attacks more conservative candidates such as Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, and now, Rick Santorum. Ron Paul's attacks aren't helping him in the polls in the least, but the one person they do seem to help when he lobs them is the Frontrunner.

What has the Frontrunner promised Ron Paul for his backhanded help, assistance which literally contradicts everything Ron Paul purports to believe? Lewis says the promise may have been to Senator Rand Paul (R-Kentucky), and that Romney or his campaign may quietly be dangling the Vice Presidency in front of Rand Paul in return for his father's delegates, should the Frontrunner need them to win the nomination.

Conservative radio host Mark Levin says that Ron Paul is acting as the Frontrunner's wingman so that Rand can get the number two spot.


Mark Levin says Ron Paul is acting as Willard Mitt's wingman in order to get something out of it for Rand

If our friends the Paulies had the kind of principles that so many of them claim to have, they would be outraged at the very thought that their man would sell out to get something for a family member...that would mean that Ron Paul is playing politics and being pragmatic, something the Paulies claim to detest most horribly.

That would make Ron Paul...oh, perish the thought...a FAKE!

Can you pick Rick in a straw poll?

If you want to know a way that you can show Rick Santorum some Tennessee support that might help turnout among the Republican base on March 6th, you can show up and participate in one of two straw polls coming up in the next few days (if you have the funds and can spare them, by all means vote in both).

The first straw poll will be taken at the Hamblen County Republican Party Lincoln/Reagan Day Dinner, which will be held tomorrow night, February 24th, 2012 at 6:30pm at First Presbyterian Church, located at 600 West Main Street in Morristown. Tickets are $25/each, and can be obtained by calling Hamblen County GOP Chairman Paul Chapman at 423-312-2027. You can also get tickets at the door provided that they aren't sold out.

The second straw poll opportunity will be the Tennessee Conservative Union's Reagan Day Dinner and Southern Conservative Caucus. This important event will be on Saturday, March 3rd, 2012 at the ballroom of the Crowne Plaza Hotel in downtown Knoxville. It's quite a bit more pricey than the Morristown straw poll at $100 a ticket, but the food is always fabulous at this annual who's who of East Tennessee conservatism (fried chicken, collards, hominy, mashed potatoes, macaroni and cheese, fat and calories et. al.), and a big part of that hundred bucks a head is going to pay for Herman Cain's speaking fee. If you can spare the time, travel, and funds for either or both of these straw polls, please show up and pick Rick!

Vote for Willard Mitt or you're fired

The Frontrunner's campaign in Michigan truly must be getting desperate. After refusing (as did pretty much the entire GOP presidential field) to participate in a debate moderated by Donald Trump with the understanding that such a forum would be nothing more than a publicity stunt for the Donald and thus a political joke, the Frontrunner was keen to revel in the Donald's endorsement and it wasn't a joke as long as he got the endorsement. Now the Frontrunner is dragging the Donald out for a robocall in Michigan.



I don't know how you, dear reader, would feel if you picked up the telephone to hear Donald Trump tell you about how he's "tired of Rick Santorum," but it would tell me that the Frontrunner can't get any endorsements that actually matter to a Republican. Donald Trump is a man, love him or hate him, who is primarily concerned with his own ratings and popularity, and he couldn't care less whether a Republican is elected in November or whether we are sentenced to four more years of  Barack Hussein Obama, so long as he keeps raking in the cash. One can't blame him for this, but we can say that the welfare of the country isn't as big a concern to him as the portfolio and cash flow of Donald Trump.

The voters of Michigan likely see that as well.

Of "phony theology" and phony outrage . . .

In yesterday's "Morning Jolt" from Jim Geraghty at National Review Online:

Here's how Santorum is playing in Michigan this morning:

Over the weekend, Rick Santorum spoke of President Barack Obama's "phony theology," and, on Monday, he talked about "a culture that has radically changed," saying we need to "rebuild the family and the church." With the Michigan and Arizona primaries a week from Tuesday, Santorum -- who polls still show to be leading nationally and in Michigan -- has increasingly turned to invoking faith and spirituality on the campaign trail, making comments that could alienate moderate conservative less concerned with social policies but motivate more passionate believers. In Lowell just east of Grand Rapids, 74-year-old Virginia Kimmer doesn't want a president forcing others to follow -- or violate -- their religious beliefs but she still wants "a man in the seat of power . . . who would be a fundamentally religious person." She's leaning toward Santorum.

But also this morning, the Wall Street Journal notes:

In the latest indication of how social issues are rising in step with Mr. Santorum, the former senator sparked a debate with Democrats over the weekend when he said some of President Barack Obama's views are based on "some phony theology . . . not a theology based on the Bible."

The boss reminds us of the full context:

The comments came at an event in Columbus shortly after the former senator from Pennsylvania said efficacy and safety improvements in oil drilling technology are considered by the president to be "a dangerous technology." "It doesn't fit his pattern of trying to drive down consumption, trying to drive up your cost of transportation to accomplish his political science goal of reducing carbon dioxide," he said. Obama, he continued, is not motivated by "your quality of life." "It's not about your job. It's about some phony ideal, some phony theology," Santorum said. "Oh, not a theology based on the Bible, a different theology. But no less a theology."

John J. Pitney reminds us:

It's worth noting that political figures from both parties have sometimes referred to their opponents' belief system as a "theology." Several weeks ago, White House press secretary Jay Carney said: "Most of my adult life, the Republican theology has been tax cuts for everyone are the highest priority."

The right thing to do

Excuse, if you please, our dust. While other candidates are busying themselves spending lots of money from SuperPACS and major campaign funders, we are waging a fight for delegates on a shoestring budget with volunteers consisting of everyday people. Everyone who is working on the Tennessee for Santorum website, blog, Facebook page,and other media has volunteered their time and energy and, in some cases, even paid for domain names, webspace, and even signs and other campaign materials. Each person is doing this because for some reason, they believe in Rick Santorum.

Some people are a part of Senator Santorum's effort here in Tennessee because they see him as the only chance to prevent someone being nominated who they do not believe adequately or accurately reflects a conservative voice in the Republican Party. Other people have gotten on board Senator Santorum's Tennessee campaign because of his strong commitment to the sanctity of human life, and the dignity of every human being. Still others appreciate Rick Santorum's consistent opposition to the TARP bailouts. Whatever the reason, all have volunteered to help because it is the right thing to do.

There is reason for hope. Rasmussen tells us that that other Republican candidate--you know, the Frontrunner--is polling six points behind Barack Obama in a national one-on-one matchup. Both Rasmussen and Quinnipiac put Rick Santorum within the margin of error against Obama--that would be a statistical tie. Who is supposedly more electable?

Has it occurred to some of the talking heads who declare the Frontrunner so electable that people seek a candidate of principle, one who is, as Rick Santorum himself has said, not a conservative alternative to the Frontrunner, but a conservative alternative to Barack Obama?